Causes of Civil War

Economic Causes of Civil War
The most widely accepted relationship between economic factors and civil war isthat high-income nations are less likely to experience civil wars than low-incomenations. Many authors investigating greed-based explanations for civil war haveincluded analyses of trade or trade policy in their models. Aside from the issue of whether a neighbor is at war, other regional and statelevel security concerns may affect the probability of civil war. The most obviousfactor is a history of civil war. Economists, among other social scientists, have tried to investigate these important questions by using economic theory as well as empirical tests. These analytical searches are driven by the hope that if we can gain a better understanding of the causes of civil war we may be able to prevent future violent conflict and help to resolve ongoing wars. The cross-country studies on the causes of war constitute the largest part of the empirical research and some robust patterns seem to be emerging. Countries are more likely to experience a civil war when they had a war in the past, their income is low, they have poor growth and a large population. In a civil war rebels challenge the government and rebellion can be thought of as a public good. If the rebellion succeeds everybody will live under the new regime, whether they actively supported the rebellion or not. This violent strive for change requires the formation and persistence of a rebel army. Civil war is a poorly observed phenomenon but rigorous empirical analysis must be based on a precise definition.  At 7 present, the most commonly used database is the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset which is a collaborative effort between the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). Typically the civil war definitions
are based on the use of violence and not the aims of the protagonists or on the outcome of the
conflict. Civil wars are defined as internal to a country, where one or more organized groups fight against the government. If the groups are fighting each other this does not constitute a civil war, but communal violence. The relationship between income and civil war has been examined in its many different aspects. Researchers have analysed the correlation between the level, the growth, the structure and distribution of income.  Income growth is another variable that is robustly  correlated with civil war onset. Typically studies measure growth before the outbreak of the civil war. However, measuring growth before the war still raises concerns about endogeneity, growth rates may be low because economic agents perceive the risk of war as high. One of the most commonly cited cause of war is inequality. Examples include the hypothesis that aggression is caused by frustration, which in turn is rooted in ‘relative deprivation’. The most cited causes of large scale violent conflict are probably differences due to ethnicity, religion and class. The definition of civil war is defined by an absolute threshold of 1,000 battle related death, larger countries have more people with the potential to start a fight and more people who can be killed. The theory suggests a number of causes of civil war but the empirical models are often  ad hoc  and the results are difficult to interpret and do not allow us to distinguish between different theories. Many explanatory variables are endogenous and it is probably better to refer to correlates of war, rather than causes.

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